Petrol costs in Lagos could attain N1,411 per litre in November if present freight, insurance and different import-related premiums stay unchanged, an power analyst has projected.
Kelvin Emmanuel, Managing Partner of The Energy Consulting Practice, stated the forecast displays the price of delivering bodily cargoes, which has risen above futures contract costs.
However, some petroleum entrepreneurs have dismissed the projected improve as speculative, arguing that crude oil costs haven’t risen additional and that they don’t seem to be at the moment planning to extend pump costs.
Petrol costs in Nigeria’s deregulated downstream sector are influenced by crude oil prices, trade charges, import financing and different market elements. Supplies delivered exterior Lagos additionally appeal to extra expenses of N100 per litre for insurance and truck freight, as properly as N40 per litre for throughput, in response to the provided business estimates.
Petrol Could Hit N1,411/Litre in November
In an unique chat with Nairametrics, Emmanuel stated insurance premiums, freight expenses and the dated Brent unfold had been main elements driving the projected improve in petrol costs.
He defined that these prices had made bodily cargo deliveries about $30 dearer than futures contracts.
Breaking down his estimate for November deliveries, Emmanuel stated he calculated the touchdown value utilizing a crude oil supply value of $145.60, plus $1.21 in Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) and Nigerian Ports Authority (NPA) levies and tariffs.
His calculation was as follows:
- The mixed touchdown value was $146.81, which he multiplied by 8.50 to reach at N1,247.89 per metric tonne.
- Adding an $80 refinery premium introduced the determine to $1,327.89 per metric tonne.
- Applying an exchange-rate issue of 1,400/1,351 produced an estimated ex-gate refinery worth of about N1,376 per litre.
- Adding N35 per litre for trucking and associated expenses introduced the projected Lagos worth to roughly N1,411 per litre.
Emmanuel stated the projection would apply if the related premiums remained at their present ranges for November deliveries.
- “The biggest denominator in the rising price of petrol are the premiums from insurance, freight, and the dated Brent spread that has made physical cargo delivery $30 more expensive than future contracts,” he stated.
He added that Dangote Refinery costs its merchandise in opposition to import parity as a result of it sources about 40% of its feedstock internationally.
According to Emmanuel, home crude provides underneath the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO) additionally carry freight prices of $9 to $12 per barrel, alongside third-party premiums for operators with lifting agreements involving third-party merchants.
He argued that costs generally cited on-line could be about 30% decrease than the precise value of touchdown bodily cargoes, whether or not by way of imports or home crude allocations. He additionally recognized the worldwide Platts pricing system and business refineries as main influences on petrol costs.
Marketers Dispute November Petrol Price Forecast
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Ukadike, described reviews of a attainable improve as speculative, saying crude oil costs had not risen additional.
- “All those things are speculation,” Ukadike stated, including that he was monitoring developments and wouldn’t base pricing choices on hypothesis.
He maintained that entrepreneurs weren’t contemplating a rise on the time, noting that petrol was already promoting for round N1,400 per litre in some components of the nation.
Ukadike additionally pointed to developments involving feedstock provides and political occasions in the United States and Israel as elements that could affect the outlook for gas costs.
Similarly, the National Publicity Secretary of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), Joseph Obele, expressed doubt a couple of additional improve, saying the Middle East battle gave the impression to be easing and crude oil costs had been declining.
Another impartial oil marketer, Isa Alheri, stated petrol costs could nonetheless rise above N1,400 per litre, relying on market circumstances.
He defined that costs had been influenced by the trade charge, worldwide crude oil costs, refined product costs, import financing prices, freight and insurance premiums.
Alheri stated that underneath the deregulated market, entrepreneurs may need to regulate their promoting costs when import prices rise to keep away from promoting beneath alternative value.
What you must know
In July 2026, oil marketers accused major fuel importers of pricing imported petrol at about N1,350 per litre, considerably above the worth provided by Dangote Petroleum Refinery.
- IPMAN’s Ukadike argued that import licences issued to main entrepreneurs to average home gas costs had failed to attain their meant goal.
- He urged the Federal Government to handle considerations about worth volatility, import licences and the sale of petroleum merchandise in US {dollars}.
- Ukadike additionally questioned the pricing technique adopted by importers, warning that continued volatility could create uncertainty for impartial entrepreneurs.
According to him, worldwide Platts pricing for imported petroleum merchandise was about 20% larger than costs provided by Dangote Refinery, making imports much less aggressive.
He opposed what he described as the indiscriminate issuance of import licences, warning that it could finally result in larger petrol costs for customers.
