This is Follow the Money, our weekly sequence that unpacks the earnings, enterprise, and scaling methods of African fintechs, financial establishments, firms, and governments. A brand new version drops each Monday.
Nigeria has made progress in bringing extra folks into the formal financial system, however having a checking account doesn’t essentially imply having the ability to receive a mortgage. While extra Nigerians can now access financial companies, borrowing prices, restricted credit histories, and irregular incomes nonetheless form who can receive formal credit and on what phrases.
According to the 2026 Access to Financial Services in Nigeria (A2F) survey by Enhancing Financial Innovation & Access (EFInA), formal financial inclusion rose to 73%, up from 64% in 2023. The proportion of adults excluded from the financial system fell from 26% to 21%. EFInA estimates that 87.2 million Nigerian adults at the moment are formally included, but solely about 12 million (10%) access formal credit.
These figures present that financial inclusion will not be the identical as access to credit. Financial inclusion encompasses access to and use of companies similar to funds, financial savings, insurance coverage and borrowing. An individual might have a checking account, obtain funds digitally and save by way of a proper establishment with out qualifying for a mortgage.
For lenders, they have to decide whether or not a borrower earns sufficient to repay, whether or not that earnings may be verified, what different financial obligations the borrower has, and how doubtless they’re to meet the reimbursement schedule. As a end result, folks can take part in the formal financial system and nonetheless battle to receive reasonably priced credit.
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), excellent client credit fell from ₦4.72 trillion ($3.5 billion) in 2024 to ₦3.78 trillion ($2.8 billion) in 2025, a decline of 19.92%. For debtors who battle to receive reasonably priced loans from formal lenders, casual sources are providing an alternate, usually with fewer procedural limitations. Stears estimates that potential demand for credit amongst casual debtors transitioning to formal lending is price $621 million.
The downside for debtors
For debtors, the issue isn’t just access to credit, however its value. EFInA discovered that 16% of adults borrow by way of casual sources, and 10% from household and associates.
“Alternative finance often wins on lower friction—speed, simplicity, proximity and flexibility,” EFiNA stated.
In 2025, Nigeria’s financial coverage fee stood between 27% and 27.5%. The coverage fee will not be the rate of interest customers pay, but it surely displays the broader financial atmosphere in which lenders function. When funding is dear, lenders face strain to cost extra to cowl their prices and the danger of non-repayment. Those greater charges, in flip, could make loans tougher for debtors to service.
For illustration, a ₦100 ($0.075) mortgage charged at a easy annual rate of interest of 27% would accrue ₦27 ($0.02) in curiosity over one 12 months, bringing reimbursement to ₦127 ($0.095) earlier than charges.
Without decrease rates of interest, reasonably priced client credit might be troublesome to scale. But fee cuts alone is not going to remedy the issue. Inflation should additionally ease sustainably. High inflation erodes debtors’ buying energy and leaves much less earnings out there for repayments, whereas making it tougher for lenders to provide cheaper loans with out taking up extra danger. As inflation eases, the CBN can have extra room to cut back its coverage fee, probably reducing funding prices and abating strain on lending charges.
The problem is to convey down each the price of credit and the financial strain on debtors. Until inflation and rates of interest ease, lenders will face strain to cost extra for danger, whereas the individuals who want credit most will proceed to battle with its value, and formal credit access will proceed to be a dream.
The downside for lenders
Digital lenders have expanded access to borrowing by way of cell functions, automated lending choices, and different information about potential prospects. Where banks have retreated, digital lenders have stuffed the gap.
Commercial banks’ loan-to-deposit ratio stood at 48.07% in 2025, beneath the reported 80% benchmark.
Digital lenders use transaction histories and reimbursement data to consider individuals who have restricted typical credit histories. But sooner lending choices don’t eradicate the underlying financial danger.
A lender that approves a mortgage should nonetheless fund the cash, service the account, and accumulate reimbursement. If the borrower defaults, the lender might get better solely a part of the principal and curiosity it anticipated to obtain.
This creates a primary financial constraint: lending income should cowl anticipated credit losses and all different related prices earlier than a lender could make a sustainable revenue.
The CBN reported a non-performing mortgage ratio of 8.03% in January 2026, that means roughly ₦8 ($0.006) of each ₦100 ($0.075) in financial institution loans was labeled as non-performing loans (NPLs), which debtors have failed to make scheduled repayments, usually for 90 days or extra.
Fintech large OPay’s reported lending figures provide a extra direct illustration of the financial pressures that credit suppliers should handle.
The firm reported $938.3 million in mortgage originations, $260.25 million in loan-financing income, and $121.29 million in provisions for anticipated credit losses in 2025.
Loan-financing income was about 27.7% of originations. Expected credit-loss provisions amounted to about 46.6% of loan-financing income.
While these figures don’t set up OPay’s revenue per mortgage, they illustrate why lenders plan a considerable portion of their lending income on the anticipated value of loans that won’t be totally repaid.
An evaluation of 300,000 active borrowers by digital lender, Credit Direct, places the common mortgage quantity at roughly ₦430,962 ($323.18) for males and ₦478,117 ($358.55) for ladies. At a hypothetical easy annual rate of interest of 28%, these loans would generate ₦120,669 ($90.49) and ₦133,873 ($100.39) in curiosity, respectively, over one 12 months, earlier than charges. However, this income wouldn’t characterize revenue. Lenders should nonetheless cowl funding prices, working bills, and losses from loans that aren’t totally repaid.
For debtors, the problem is whether or not they can afford to tackle and repay such debt. EFInA discovered that 59% of respondents would battle to elevate ₦156,000 ($116.99) inside seven days, suggesting that many Nigerians have restricted financial buffers to take up sudden bills or repay loans when due.
What will unlock the market?
In Brazil, account possession stood at 86.4%, while 45.9% of adults reported formal borrowing. China recorded account possession of 89.4% and formal borrowing of 40.7%. Kenya recorded 90.1% of adults with a financial account, and solely 12.6% reported formal borrowing. South Africa equally recorded account possession of 81.1%, in contrast with a proper borrowing fee of 12.4%.
In these nations, financial inclusion and borrowing are trending upward, pushed by enhancing lending situations, credit data, family incomes, and the provision of appropriate mortgage merchandise.
For Nigeria, the problem will not be merely to enhance the quantity of credit out there. It is to make extra lending each repayable for debtors and financially sustainable for lenders.
Lower inflation and funding prices might assist ease strain on mortgage pricing. Better credit data might assist lenders distinguish between debtors with totally different reimbursement capacities. Loan sizes and reimbursement schedules that replicate debtors’ money flows might additionally cut back the danger of repayments overwhelming family budgets.
As Nigeria’s financial inclusion continues to develop, the standard of inclusion is changing into an more and more necessary concern. Without access to credit, formal financial inclusion might not translate into significant alternatives for people to handle financial shocks, make investments in their livelihoods, or meet main bills.
True scale calls for transferring past surface-level integrations to strong execution. We’ve filtered the noise out of Moonshot 2026, optimising the convention strictly for high-calibre connections between startup founders, international financial operators, enterprise leaders and people rewiring Africa’s technical frameworks. Get 20% off Early Bird tickets for a limited time.
